Another Chron op-ed proves erroneous

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On October 17, 2004, the Chronicle ran an op-ed by Glen Harold Stassen and Gary Krane entitled “Why abortion rate is up in Bush years.”

The message was that the Bush Administration’s economic policies had produced a surge in abortions. Here’s a taste of the article:

Under Bush, the decade-long trend of declining abortion rates appears to have reversed. Given the trends of the 1990s, 52,000 more abortions occurred in the United States in 2002 than would have been expected before this change of direction.

For anyone familiar with why most women have abortions, this is no surprise:

Two-thirds of women who have abortions cite “inability to afford a child” as their primary reason (Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life). In the Bush presidency, unemployment rates increased half again. Not since Herbert Hoover had there been a net loss of jobs during a presidency until the current administration. Average real incomes decreased, and for seven years the minimum wage has not been raised to match inflation. With less income, many prospective mothers fear another mouth to feed.

[snip]

What does this tell us? Economic policy and abortion are not separate issues; they form one moral imperative. Rhetoric is hollow, mere tinkling brass, without health care, insurance, jobs, child care and a living wage. Pro-life in deed, not merely in word, means we need a president who will do something about jobs, health insurance and support for mothers.

The message, no doubt, resonated with what certain pro-abortion, pro-leftover Chron editorialists “knew” to be true.

As it turns out, however, Stassen’s methodology was flawed, his assumptions about the universe of data were too broad, and his conclusions were erroneous:

The fact is abortions have continued to decline since Bush took office, the Alan Guttmacher Institute reported May 19. According to its estimates based on a new study, AGI said abortions decreased by about 10,000 from 2000 to 2001 and by about another 10,000 in 2002. The rate declined from 21.3 abortions per 1,000 women in 2000 to 21.1 the next year and 20.9 in 2002.

The AGI report was based on an analysis of information from 43 states, while Stassen’s conclusion was derived from a study of 16 states. AGI acknowledged the rate of decline in abortions has slowed since the early 1990s.

AGI does not provide cover for the pro-life movement, either. AGI began as a division of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America and was named after a one-time PPFA president. It became independent in 1977 but remains a special affiliate of PPFA, the country’s leading operator of abortion clinics.

When Stassen made his claim in a column in October, researchers for the National Right to Life Committee described his findings as “mistaken and misleading.” They also pointed out Stassen did not disclose he signed “A Call to Concern,” a 1977 statement that supported the Roe v. Wade opinion legalizing abortion.

Stassen, who characterizes himself as “consistently pro-life,” continued in his May 25 statement to contend Bush’s economic policies have caused the decline in abortions to stall. Those policies have undermined financial support for mothers, increased male unemployment and enlarged the number of Americans without health insurance, Stassen said.

Stassen seems not as consistently pro-life as he has made himself out to be, and seems to have other bones to pick with the Bush Administration. Whatever the case, his editorial that appeared in the Chronicle in 2004 was wrong. The Chronicle editorial board sure has been picking ’em lately.

RELATED: The biography of a bad statistic (FactCheck.org), Hillary And Dean’s abortion numbers don’t add up (TheFactIs.org), The demise of an abortion canard (No Left Turns).


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