The Chronicle‘s Bradley Olson ponders why Houston political candidates continue to talk about crime, even though Houston crime statistics have shown some improvement:
Crime has emerged as a top issue for Houston political candidates this year, with a host of City Council and mayoral aspirants placing their approach to public safety at the top of their list of promises to voters.
Actual crime, however, is going down in Houston, and markedly so.
In 2008, the number of major crimes committed per 100,000 residents in Houston was lower than any year since 1980, according to Houston Police Department data. In the first three months of this year, violent crimes have declined 8 percent compared to the same period last year.
In the words of a statistician, the decrease in criminality appears to have an inverse relationship, at least for now, with political rhetoric on crime, which has ramped up in recent months.
“It’s probably very difficult for any politician to acknowledge that the problem of crime is decreasing, because that undermines the importance of the issue,” said Dennis Longmire, a professor of criminal justice at Sam Houston State University who has studied public attitudes toward crime.
There is probably some truth to that.
However, there are other possible contributing factors. A bumbling, Phoenix-oriented police chief has done little to inspire confidence. Plus we know from Mark Greenblatt’s award-winning reporting that HPD under MayorWhiteChiefHurtt has miscategorized murder statistics, and then tried to smear the reporter who pointed it out. We also know that the White Administration has been fond of using certain (inflated?) population statistics in assessing the crime rate, but treats those same population statistics as completely unreliable when it comes to the pesky matter of City Council redistricting. This is the sort of game-playing by pols that causes normal citizens to trust their gut and what they see on the street (not to mention the fact that they see very few cops on the street, thanks to the ongoing manpower crisis) more than the talking points emanating from pols currently in office.
So far as that goes, MayorWhiteChiefHurtt’s talking points do not seem to be resonating with voters, according to Olson:
Nearly three quarters of Houston-area residents interviewed in 2008 for Rice University’s annual Houston Area Survey said that they are “somewhat worried” or “very worried” they or a family member will become a victim of a crime.
That is higher than any year since the mid
