The Chronicle released a survey on Rep. Tom DeLay by Richard Murray and Houston’s most happening political scientist Bob Stein over the weekend.
One question on the survey seems a bit bizarre, as it appears that Murray and Stein asked ALL respondents (not just those planning to vote in the Republican primary) whom they would be voting for in the Republican primary, thereby making the results on that particular question relatively useless. It’s not entirely clear if the newspaper simply misreported the results, or if the veteran pollsters really did employ a strange approach to that question.
Unfortunately, the newspaper chose not to post full (raw) survey results or full crosstabs online, so it is impossible for those who might be interested to look at the work more carefully.
Evan at Delay vs. World has given the reported results a careful look, and also has an email out to pollsters and reporter alike for clarification on some of the numbers. Evan’s executive summary (if you will) is as follows:
1. This isn’t good for DeLay, although it’s not really unexpected. The survey puts DeLay’s favorable/unfavorable at 29%/60%, and it shows that many voters who have voted for him are considering other candidates because of his legal situation.
2. Unless DeLay’s legal situation deteriorates, this is very likely the nadir of his poll numbers. There’s no doubt that after the last few weeks, DeLay’s poll numbers would be bad. But is this really the best time to take a poll, if you’re attempting to predict the outcome of upcoming elections? No.
3. As far as I can tell, unless the Chronicle or Stein/Murray choose to clarify the primary results, it’s very hard to take the primary results seriously.
4. If DeLay wins legally, he’ll win re-election. If he loses legally, he won’t win re-election.
Evan also notes that KHOU-11 seems to have had some difficulty interpreting the results properly.
There’s not much to add to Evan’s assessment, which ought to be read in its entirety. After the last few weeks and the accompanying press, it’s not surprising that Rep. DeLay’s poll numbers have suffered accordingly. It may be exciting for some executive editors to rush a (flawed) poll to the field in those circumstances, but the timing probably isn’t so helpful in terms of predicting the outcome of the election. The poll does illustrate that Rep. DeLay’s legal situation is central to his re-election chances, but that shouldn’t come as news to most people.
UPDATE (01-16-2006): The Chronicle‘s Dean Betz informs in the comments that Murray/Stein have provided additional crosstabs, which the Chronicle has posted. Thanks to all of them for responding so quickly. Evan at Delay vs. World has some preliminary thoughts on the newly posted information.
(Old) Forum Comments (14)
